Comparison of eight prehospital early warning scores in life-threatening acute respiratory distress: a prospective, observational, multicentre, ambulance-based, external validation study.

BACKGROUND: A myriad of early warning scores (EWSs) exist, yet there is a need to identify the most clinically valid score to be used in prehospital respiratory assessments to estimate short-term and midterm mortality, intensive-care unit admission, and airway management in life-threatening acute respiratory distress. METHODS: This is a prospective, observational, multicentre, ambulance-based, external validation study performed in 44 ambulance services and four hospitals across three Spanish provinces (ie, Salamanca, Segovia, and Valladolid). We identified adults (ie, those aged 18 years and older) discharged to the emergency department with suspected acute respiratory distress. The primary outcome was 2-day all-cause in-hospital mortality, for all the patients or according to prehospital respiratory conditions, including dyspnoea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), COVID-19, other infections, and other conditions (asthma exacerbation, haemoptysis, and bronchoaspirations). 30-day mortality, intensive-care unit admission, and invasive and non-invasive mechanical ventilation were secondary outcomes. Eight EWSs, namely, the National Early Warning Score 2, the Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, the Rapid Acute Physiology Score, the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score, the CURB-65 Severity Score for Community-Acquired Pneumonia, the BAP-65 Score for Acute Exacerbation of COPD, the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index, and the Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mSOFA), were explored to determine their predictive validity through calibration, clinical net benefit as determined through decision curve analysis, and discrimination analysis (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC], compared with Delong's test). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2020, and Nov 31, 2022, 902 patients were enrolled. The global 2-day mortality rate was 87 (10%); in proportion to various respiratory conditions, the rates were 35 (40%) for dyspnoea, nine (10%) for COPD, 13 (15%) for COVID-19, 28 (32%) for other infections, and two (2%) for others conditions. mSOFA showed the best calibration, a higher net benefit, and the best discrimination (AUROC 0·911, 95% CI 0·86-0·95) for predicting 2-day mortality, and its discrimination was statistically significantly more accurate (p<0·0001) compared with the other scores. The performance of mSOFA for predicting 2-day mortality was higher than the other scores when considering the prehospital respiratory conditions, and was also higher for the secondary outcomes, except for non-invasive mechanical ventilation. INTERPRETATION: Our results showed that mSOFA outperformed other EWSs. The inclusion of mSOFA in prehospital decision making will entail a quick identification of patients in acute respiratory distress at high risk of deterioration, allowing prioritisation of resources and patient care. FUNDING: Gerencia Regional de Salud, Public Health System of Castilla y León (GRS Spain). TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Prehospital qSOFA, mSOFA, and NEWS2 performance for sepsis prediction: A prospective, multi-center, cohort study.

Background: Nowadays, there is no gold standard score for prehospital sepsis and sepsis-related mortality identification. The aim of the present study was to analyze the performance of qSOFA, NEWS2 and mSOFA as sepsis predictors in patients with infection-suspected in prehospital care. The second objective is to study the predictive ability of the aforementioned scores in septic-shock and in-hospital mortality. Methods: Prospective, ambulance-based, and multicenter cohort study, developed by the emergency medical services, among patients (n = 535) with suspected infection transferred by ambulance with high-priority to the emergency department (ED). The study enrolled 40 ambulances and 4 ED in Spain between 1 January 2020, and 30 September 2021. All the variables used in the scores, in addition to socio-demographic data, standard vital signs, prehospital analytical parameters (glucose, lactate, and creatinine) were collected. For the evaluation of the scores, the discriminative power, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used. Results: The mSOFA outperformed the other two scores for mortality, presenting the following AUCs: 0.877 (95%CI 0.841-0.913), 0.761 (95%CI 0.706-0.816), 0.731 (95%CI 0.674-0.788), for mSOFA, NEWS, and qSOFA, respectively. No differences were found for sepsis nor septic shock, but mSOFA's AUCs was higher than the one of the other two scores. The calibration curve and DCA presented similar results. Conclusion: The use of mSOFA could provide and extra insight regarding the short-term mortality and sepsis diagnostic, backing its recommendation in the prehospital scenario.

Derivation and validation of a blood biomarker score for 2-day mortality prediction from prehospital care: a multicenter, cohort, EMS-based study.

Identifying potentially life-threatening diseases is a key challenge for emergency medical services. This study aims at examining the role of different prehospital biomarkers from point-of-care testing to derive and validate a score to detect 2-day in-hospital mortality. We conducted a prospective, observational, prehospital, ongoing, and derivation-validation study in three Spanish provinces, in adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to the emergency department. A total of 23 ambulance-based biomarkers were collected from each patient. A biomarker score based on logistic regression was fitted to predict 2-day mortality from an optimum subset of variables from prehospital blood analysis, obtained through an automated feature selection stage. 2806 cases were analyzed, with a median age of 68 (interquartile range 51-81), 42.3% of women, and a 2-day mortality rate of 5.5% (154 non-survivors). The blood biomarker score was constituted by the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, and creatinine. The score fitted with logistic regression using these biomarkers reached a high performance to predict 2-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.933 (95% CI 0.841-0.973). The following risk levels for 2-day mortality were identified from the score: low risk (score < 1), where only 8.2% of non-survivors were assigned to; medium risk (1 ≤ score < 4); and high risk (score ≥ 4), where the 2-day mortality rate was 57.6%. The novel blood biomarker score provides an excellent association with 2-day in-hospital mortality, as well as real-time feedback on the metabolic-respiratory patient status. Thus, this score can help in the decision-making process at critical moments in life-threatening situations.

Comparison of seven prehospital early warning scores to predict long-term mortality: a prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based study.

METHODS: A prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based study of adult patients with an acute illness involving six advanced life support units and 38 basic life support units, referring to five emergency departments in Spain. RESULTS: The primary outcome was long-term mortality with a 1-year follow-up. The compared scores included: National Early Warning Score 2, VitalPAC early warning score, modified rapid emergency medicine score (MREMS), Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage Score, Rapid Acute Physiology Score, and Triage Early Warning Score. Discriminative power [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the scores. Additionally, a Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier method were used. Between 8 October 2019, and 31 July 2021, a total of 2674 patients were selected. The MREMS presented the highest AUC of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.79), significantly higher than those of the other EWS. It also exhibited the best performance in the DCA and the highest hazard ratio for 1-year mortality [3.56 (2.94-4.31) for MREMS between 9 and 18 points, and 11.71 (7.21-19.02) for MREMS > 18]. CONCLUSION: Among seven tested EWS, the use of the MREMS presented better characteristics to predict 1-year mortality; however, all these scores present moderate performances.

Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score vs. Early Warning Scores in Prehospital Care to Predict Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Acute Cardiovascular Disease.

(1) Background: The Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mSOFA) is an Early Warning Score (EWS) that has proven to be useful in identifying patients at high risk of mortality in prehospital care. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of prehospital mSOFA in estimating 2- and 90-day mortality (all-cause) in patients with acute cardiovascular diseases (ACVD), and to compare this validity to that of four other widely-used EWS. (2) Methods: We conducted a prospective, observational, multicentric, ambulance-based study in adults with suspected ACVD who were transferred by ambulance to Emergency Departments (ED). The primary outcome was 2- and 90-day mortality (all-cause in- and out-hospital). The discriminative power of the predictive variable was assessed and evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). (3) Results: A total of 1540 patients met the inclusion criteria. The 2- and 90-day mortality rates were 5.3% and 12.7%, respectively. The mSOFA showed the highest AUC of all the evaluated scores for both 2- and 90-day mortality, AUC = 0.943 (0.917-0.968) and AUC = 0.874 (0.847-0.902), respectively. (4) Conclusions: The mSOFA is a quick and easy-to-use EWS with an excellent ability to predict mortality at both 2 and 90 days in patients treated for ACVD, and has proved to be superior to the other EWS evaluated in this study.

Development of a prehospital lactic acidosis score for early-mortality. A prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lactic acidosis is a clinical status related to clinical worsening. Actually, higher levels of lactate is a well-established trigger of emergency situations. The aim of this work is to build-up a prehospital early warning score to predict 2-day mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, constructed with other components of the lactic acidosis besides the lactate. METHODS: Prospective, multicenter, observational, derivation-validation cohort study of adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to emergency department with acute diseases, between January 1st, 2020 and December 31st, 2021. Including six advanced life support, thirty-eight basic life support units, referring to four hospitals (Spain). The primary and secondary outcome of the study were 2-day all-cause mortality and ICU-admission. The prehospital lactic acidosis (PLA) score was derived from the analysis of prehospital blood parameters associated with the outcome using a logistic regression. The calibration, clinical utility, and discrimination of PLA were determined and compared to the performance of each component of the score alone. RESULTS: A total of 3334 patients were enrolled. The final PLA score included: lactate, pCO2, and pH. For 2-day mortality, the PLA showed an AUC of 0.941 (95%CI: 0.914-0.967), a better performance in calibration, and a higher net benefit as compared to the other score components alone. For the ICU admission, the PLA only showed a better performance for AUC: 0.75 (95%CI: 0.706-0.794). CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that PLA predicts 2-day mortality better than other lactic acidosis components alone. Including PLA score in prehospital setting could improve emergency services decision-making.

Tracking the National Early Warning Score 2 from Prehospital Care to the Emergency Department: A Prospective, Ambulance-Based, Observational Study.

Aim of the study: To assess the prognostic ability of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) at three time points of care -at the emergency scene (NEWS2-1), just before starting the transfer by ambulance to the hospital (NEWS2- 2), and at the hospital triage box (NEWS2-3)- to estimate in-hospital mortality after two days since the index event.Methods: Prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based, cohort ongoing study in adults (>18 years) consecutively attended by advanced life support (ALS) and evacuated with high-priority to the emergency departments (ED) between October 2018 and May 2021. Vital sign measures were used to calculate the NEWS2 score at each time point, then this score was entered in a logistic regression model as the single predictor. Two outcomes were considered: first, all-cause mortality of the patients within 2 days of presentation to EMS, and second, unplanned ICU admission. The calibration and scores comparison was performed by representing the predicted vs the observed risk curves according to NEWS score value.Results: 4943 patients were enrolled. Median age was 69 years (interquartile range 53- 81). The NEWS2-3 presented the better performance for all-cause two-day in-hospital mortality with an AUC of 0.941 (95% CI: 0.917-0.964), showing statistical differences with both the NEWS2-1 (0.872 (95% CI: 0.833-0.911); p < 0.003) and with the NEWS2- 2 (0.895 (95% CI: 0.866-0.925; p < 0.05). The calibration and scores comparison results showed that the NEWS2-3 was the best predictive score followed by the NEWS2-2 and the NEWS2-1, respectively.Conclusions: The NEWS2 has an excellent predictive performance. The score showed a very consistent response over time with the difference between "at the emergency scene" and "pre-evacuation" presenting the sharpest change with decreased threshold values, thus displaying a drop in the risk of acute clinical impairment.

Prehospital Respiratory Early Warning Score for airway management in-ambulance: A score comparison.

BACKGROUND: Prehospital Respiratory Early Warning Scores to estimate the requirement for advanced respiratory support is needed. To develop a prehospital Respiratory Early Warning Score to estimate the requirement for advanced respiratory support. METHODS: Multicentre, prospective, emergency medical services (EMS)-delivered, longitudinal cohort derivationvalidation study carried out in 59 ambulances and five hospitals across five Spanish provinces. Adults with acute diseases evaluated, supported and discharged to the Emergency Department with high priority were eligible. The primary outcome was the need for invasive or non-invasive respiratory support (NIRS or IRS) in the prehospital scope at the first contact with the patient. The measures included the following: epidemiological endpoints, prehospital vital signs (respiratory rate, pulse oximetry saturation, fraction of inspired oxygen, systolic and diastolic mean blood pressure, heart rate, tympanic temperature and consciousness level by the GCS). RESULTS: Between 26 Oct 2018 and 26 Oct 2021, we enrolled 5793 cases. For NIRS prediction, the final model of the logistic regression included respiratory rate and pulse oximetry saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio. For the IRS case, the motor response from the Glasgow Coma Scale was also included. The REWS showed an AUC of 0.938 (95% CI: 0.918-0.958), a calibration-in-large of 0.026 and a higher net benefit as compared with the other scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that REWS is a remarkably aid for the decision-making process in the management of advanced respiratory support in prehospital care. Including this score in the prehospital scenario could improve patients' care and optimise the resources' management.

Role of prehospital point-of-care N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide in acute life-threatening cardiovascular disease.

INTRODUCTION: The evidence about the use of natriuretic peptides (NP) to predict mortality in the pre-hospital setting is limited. The main objective of this study is to assess the ability of point-of-care testing (POCT) N-terminal portion of B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) to predict 2-day in-hospital mortality of acute cardiovascular diseases (ACVD). METHODS: We conducted a multicentric, prospective, observational study in adults with ACVD transferred by ambulance to emergency departments (ED). The primary outcome was 2-day in-hospital mortality. The discrimination capacity of the NT-proBNP was performed through a prediction model trained using a derivation cohort and evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic on a validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 1006 patients were recruited. The median age was 75 (IQR 63-84) years and 421 (41.85%) were females. The 2-day in-hospital mortality was 5.8% (58 cases). The predictive validity of NT-proBNP, for 2-day mortality reached the following AUC: 0.823 (95%CI: 0.758-0.889, p < 0.001), and the optimal specificity and sensitivity were 73.1 and 82.7. Predictive power of NT-proBNP obtained an AUC 0.549 (95%CI: 0.432-0.865, p 0.215) for acute heart failure, AUC 0.893 (95%CI: 0.617-0.97, p < 0.001) for ischemic heart disease, AUC 0.714 (95%CI: 0.55-0.87, p = 0.0069) for arrhythmia and AUC 0.927 (95%CI: 0.877-0.978, p < 0,001) for syncope. CONCLUSION: POCT NT-proBNP has proven to be a strong predictor of early mortality in ACVD, showing an excellent predictive capacity in cases of syncope. However, this biomarker does not appear to be useful for predicting outcome in patients with acute heart failure.

Combination of Prehospital NT-proBNP with qSOFA and NEWS to Predict Sepsis and Sepsis-Related Mortality.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess the role of prehospital point-of-care N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide to predict sepsis, septic shock, or in-hospital sepsis-related mortality. METHODS: A prospective, emergency medical service-delivered, prognostic, cohort study of adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to emergency department between January 2020 and May 2021. The discriminative power of the predictive variable was assessed through a prediction model trained using the derivation cohort and evaluated by the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic on the validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 1,360 patients were enrolled with medical disease in the study. The occurrence of sepsis, septic shock, and in-hospital sepsis-related mortality was 6.4% (67 cases), 4.2% (44 cases), and 6.1% (64 cases). Prehospital National Early Warning Score 2 had superior predictive validity than quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide for detecting sepsis and septic shock, but N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide outperformed both scores in in-hospital sepsis-related mortality estimation. Application of N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide to subgroups of the other two scores improved the identification of sepsis, septic shock, and sepsis-related mortality in the group of patients with low-risk scoring. CONCLUSIONS: The incorporation of N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide in prehospital care combined with already existing scores could improve the identification of sepsis, septic shock, and sepsis-related mortality.

One-on-one comparison between qCSI and NEWS scores for mortality risk assessment in patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive value of the quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for 90-day mortality amongst COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Multicenter retrospective cohort study conducted in adult patients transferred by ambulance to an emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19 infection subsequently confirmed by a SARS-CoV-2 test (polymerase chain reaction). We collected epidemiological data, clinical covariates (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, temperature, level of consciousness and use of supplemental oxygen) and hospital variables. The primary outcome was cumulative all-cause mortality during a 90-day follow-up, with mortality assessment monitoring time points at 1, 2, 7, 14, 30 and 90 days from ED attendance. Comparison of performances for 90-day mortality between both scores was carried out by univariate analysis. RESULTS: From March to November 2020, we included 2,961 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (median age 79 years, IQR 66-88), with 49.2% females. The qCSI score provided an AUC ranging from 0.769 (1-day mortality) to 0.749 (90-day mortality), whereas AUCs for NEWS ranging from 0.825 for 1-day mortality to 0.777 for 90-day mortality. At all-time points studied, differences between both scores were statistically significant (p < .001). CONCLUSION: Patients with SARS-CoV-2 can rapidly develop bilateral pneumonias with multiorgan disease; in these cases, in which an evacuation by the EMS is required, reliable scores for an early identification of patients with risk of clinical deterioration are critical. The NEWS score provides not only better prognostic results than those offered by qCSI at all the analyzed time points, but it is also better suited for COVID-19 patients.KEY MESSAGESThis work aims to determine whether NEWS is the best score for mortality risk assessment in patients with COVID-19.AUCs for NEWS ranged from 0.825 for 1-day mortality to 0.777 for 90-day mortality and were significantly higher than those for qCSI in these same outcomes.NEWS provides a better prognostic capacity than the qCSI score and allows for long-term (90 days) mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients.

Comorbidity-adjusted NEWS predicts mortality in suspected patients with COVID-19 from nursing homes: Multicentre retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: To assess the prognostic accuracy of comorbidity-adjusted National Early Warning Score in suspected Coronavirus disease 2019 patients transferred from nursing homes by the Emergency Department. DESIGN: Multicentre retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Patients transferred by high-priority ambulances from nursing homes to Emergency Departments with suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, from March 12 to July 31 2020, were considered. Included variables were: clinical covariates (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, temperature, level of consciousness and supplemental oxygen use), the presence of comorbidities and confirmatory analytical diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. The primary outcome was a 2-day mortality rate. The discriminatory capability of the National Early Warning Score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in two different cohorts, the validation and the revalidation, which were randomly selected from the main cohort. RESULTS: A total of 337 nursing homes, 10 advanced life support units, 51 basic life support units and 8 hospitals in Spain entailing 1,324 patients (median age 87 years) was involved in this study. Two-day mortality was 11.5% (152 cases), with a positivity rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 of 51.2%, 77.7% of hospitalization from whom 1% was of intensive care unit admission. The National Early Warning Score results for the revalidation cohort presented an AUC of 0.771, and of 0.885, 0.778 and 0.730 for the low-, medium- and high-level groups of comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The comorbidity-adjusted National Early Warning Score provides a good short-term prognostic criterion, information that can help in the decision-making process to guide the best strategy for each older adult, under the current pandemic. IMPACT: What problem did the study address? Under the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, targeting older adults at high risk of deterioration in nursing homes remains challenging. What were the main findings? Comorbidity-adjusted National Early Warning Score helps to forecast the risk of clinical deterioration more accurately. Where and on whom will the research have impact? A high NEWS, with a low level of comorbidity is associated with optimal predictive performance, making these older adults likely to benefit from continued follow up and potentially hospital referral under the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

COVID-19 as a risk factor for long-term mortality in patients managed by the emergency medical system: A prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based cohort study.

Introduction: COVID-19 has initially been studied in terms of an acute-phase disease, although recently more attention has been given to the long-term consequences. In this study, we examined COVID-19 as an independent risk factor for long-term mortality in patients with acute illness treated by EMS (emergency medical services) who have previously had the disease against those who have not had the disease. Methods: A prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based, ongoing study was performed with adult patients with acute disease managed by EMS and transferred with high priority to the emergency department (ED) as study subjects. The study involved six advanced life support units, 38 basic life support units, and five emergency departments from Spain. Sociodemographic inputs, baseline vital signs, pre-hospital blood tests, and comorbidities, including COVID-19, were collected. The main outcome was long-term mortality, which was classified into 1-year all-cause mortality and 1-year in- and out-of-hospital mortality. To compare both the patients with COVID-19 vs. patients without COVID-19 and to compare survival vs non-survival, two main statistical analyses were performed, namely, a longitudinal analysis (Cox regression) and a logistic regression analysis. Results: Between 12 March 2020 and 30 September 2021, a total of 3,107 patients were included in the study, with 2,594 patients without COVID-19 and 513 patients previously suffering from COVID-19. The mortality rate was higher in patients with COVID-19 than in patients without COVID-19 (31.8 vs. 17.9%). A logistic regression showed that patients previously diagnosed with COVID-19 presented higher rates of nursing home residency, a higher number of breaths per minute, and suffering from connective disease, dementia, and congestive heart failure. The longitudinal analysis showed that COVID-19 was a risk factor for mortality [hazard ratio 1.33 (1.10-1.61); p < 0.001]. Conclusion: The COVID-19 group presented an almost double mortality rate compared with the non-COVID-19 group. The final model adjusted for confusion factors suggested that COVID-19 was a risk factor for long-term mortality.

Role of SpO2/FiO2 Ratio and ROX Index in Predicting Early Invasive Mechanical Ventilation in COVID-19. A Pragmatic, Retrospective, Multi-Center Study.

The ability of COVID-19 to compromise the respiratory system has generated a substantial proportion of critically ill patients in need of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The objective of this paper was to analyze the prognostic ability of the pulse oximetry saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio (SpO2/FiO2) and the ratio of SpO2/FiO2 to the respiratory rate-ROX index-as predictors of IMV in an emergency department in confirmed COVID-19 patients. A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was carried out in four provinces of Spain between March and November 2020. The discriminative power of the predictive variable was assessed through a prediction model trained using a derivation sub-cohort and evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) on the validation sub-cohort. A total of 2040 patients were included in the study. The IMV rate was 10.1%, with an in-hospital mortality rate of 35.3%. The performance of the SpO2/FiO2 ratio was better than the ROX index-AUC = 0.801 (95% CI 0.746-0.855) and AUC = 0.725 (95% CI 0.652-0.798), respectively. In fact, a direct comparison between AUCs resulted in significant differences (p = 0.001). SpO2 to FiO2 ratio is a simple and promising non-invasive tool for predicting risk of IMV in patients infected with COVID-19, and it is realizable in emergency departments.

Time for a prehospital-modified sequential organ failure assessment score: An ambulance-Based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To adapt the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to fit the prehospital care needs; to do that, the SOFA was modified by replacing platelets and bilirubin, by lactate, and tested this modified SOFA (mSOFA) score in its prognostic capacity to assess the mortality-risk at 2 days since the first Emergency Medical Service (EMS) contact. METHODS: Prospective, multicentric, EMS-delivery, ambulance-based, pragmatic cohort study of adults with acute diseases, referred to two tertiary care hospitals (Spain), between January 1st and December 31st, 2020. The discriminative power of the predictive variable was assessed through a prediction model trained using the derivation cohort and evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) on the validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 1114 participants comprised two separated cohorts recruited from 15 ambulance stations. The 2-day mortality rate (from any cause) was 5.9% (66 cases). The predictive validity of the mSOFA score was assessed by the calculation of the AUC of ROC in the validation cohort, resulting in an AUC of 0.946 (95% CI, 0.913-0.978, p < .001), with a positive likelihood ratio was 23.3 (95% CI, 0.32-46.2). CONCLUSIONS: Scoring systems are now a reality in prehospital care, and the mSOFA score assesses multiorgan dysfunction in a simple and agile manner either bedside or en route. Patients with acute disease and an mSOFA score greater than 6 points transferred with high priority by EMS represent a high early mortality group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN48326533, Registered Octuber 312,019, Prospectively registered (doi:https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN48326533).

Association of Prehospital Oxygen Saturation to Inspired Oxygen Ratio With 1-, 2-, and 7-Day Mortality.

Importance: The early identification of patients at high risk of clinical deterioration represents one of the greatest challenges for emergency medical services (EMS). Objective: To assess whether use of the ratio of prehospital oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry (Spo2) to fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) measured during initial contact by EMS with the patient (ie, the first Spo2 to Fio2 ratio) and 5 minutes before the patient's arrival at the hospital (ie, the second Spo2 to Fio2 ratio) can predict the risk of early in-hospital deterioration. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective, derivation-validation prognostic cohort study of 3606 adults with acute diseases referred to 5 tertiary care hospitals in Spain was conducted between October 26, 2018, and June 30, 2020. Eligible patients were recruited from among all telephone requests for EMS assistance for adults who were later evacuated with priority in advanced life support units to the referral hospitals during the study period. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was hospital mortality from any cause within the first, second, third, or seventh day after EMS transport to the hospital. The main measure was the Spo2 to Fio2 ratio. Results: A total of 3606 participants comprised 2 separate cohorts: the derivation cohort (3081 patients) and the validation cohort (525 patients). The median age was 69 years (interquartile range, 54-81 years), and 2122 patients (58.8%) were men. The overall mortality rate of the patients in the study cohort ranged from 3.6% for 1-day mortality (131 patients) to 7.1% for 7-day mortality (256 patients). The best model performance was for 2-day mortality with the second Spo2 to Fio2 ratio with an area under the curve of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.829-0.950; P < .001), although the other outcomes also presented good results. In addition, a risk-stratification model was generated. The optimal cutoff resulted in the following ranges of Spo2 to Fio2 ratios: 50 to 100 for high risk of mortality, 101 to 426 for intermediate risk, and 427 to 476 for low risk. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that use of the prehospital Spo2 to Fio2 ratio was associated with improved management of patients with acute disease because it accurately predicts short-term mortality.

Can anxiety in undergraduate students in a high-fidelity clinical simulation be predicted? A randomized, sham-controlled, blinded trial.

INTRODUCTION: High-fidelity clinical simulation has implied a revolution in health science training. Despite its benefits, some drawbacks could hinder the learning process, especially the anxiety produced during such scenarios. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present work is to develop a predictive model capable of determining which students will present high levels of anxiety. DESIGN: We performed a randomized, sham-controlled, blinded trial in which students were randomly assigned to four scenarios and played one of two possible roles. METHODS: Before and after the simulation we assessed the anxiety level along with physiological and analytical parameters. The main analyzed outcome was an increase of ≥25% in anxiety compared with baseline. RESULTS: The type of scenario or the role played had no effect on anxiety. The predictive model presented an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics of 0.798 (95% CI: 0.69-0.90; p < 0.001), with age and systolic blood pressure being protective factors against anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the anxiety level developed during simulation could be predicted. The application of this predictive model when associated to appropriate techniques to deal with increased anxiety levels could improve the learning process of medical students during simulations.

A predictive model for serious adverse events in adults with acute poisoning in prehospital and hospital care.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to design a risk model with variables determined before hospital arrival to predict the risk of serious adverse events in patients with acute poisoning. METHODS: A preliminary prospective, multicentre cohort study of adults with prehospital diagnosis of acute intoxication was conducted. The study was carried out in the Public Health System of the Community of Castilla-Leon (Spain), including seven advanced life support units and five hospitals, between April 1, 2018, and June 30, 2019. People aged >18 years with a main prehospital diagnosis of acute poisoning admitted to a referral hospital on advanced life support were included. The main outcome measure was prehospital and hospital serious adverse events in patients with acute poisoning. RESULTS: We included 221 patients, with a median age of 47 years (interquartile range: 33-61). The most frequent cause of poisoning was psychopharmaceuticals (111 cases, 49.8%): 38 (17.2%) patients had a serious adverse event, with a hospital mortality of 4.1% (nine cases) in the 30 days after the index event. The final model included age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR]: 9.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.48-26.45; p < 0.001), oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen index ≤300 (OR: 15.03, 95% CI: 5.74-39.33; p < 0.001), and point-of-care lactate ≥4 mmol/L (OR: 7.68, 95% CI: 2.88-20.45; p < 0.001). The poisoning Early Warning Score was constructed from these three variables, and 1 point was assigned to each variable. The area under the curve of the score was 0.896 (95% CI: 0.82-0.96; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The poisoning Early Warning Score may help in decision-making and promote early identification of high-risk patients with acute poisoning in the prehospital context.

Predicting Health Care Workers' Tolerance of Personal Protective Equipment: An Observational Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: More recently, due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, health care workers have to deal with clinical situations wearing personal protective equipment (PPE); however, there is a question of whether everybody will tolerate PPE equally. The main objective of this study was to develop a risk model to predict whether health care workers will tolerate wearing PPE, C category, 4B/5B/6B type, during a 30-minute simulation. METHODS: A nonexperimental simulation study was conducted at the Advanced Simulation Center, Faculty of Medicine, Valladolid University (Spain) from April 3rd to 28th, 2017. Health care students and professionals were equipped with PPE and performed a 30-minute simulation. Anthropometric, physiological, and analytical variables and anxiety levels were measured before and after simulation. A scoring model was constructed. RESULTS: Ninety-six volunteers participated in the study. Half the sample presented metabolic fatigue in the 20 minutes after finishing the simulation. The predictive model included female sex, height, muscle and bone mass, and moderate level of physical activity. The validity of the main model using all the variables presented an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.786-0.935), and the validity of the model had an area under the curve of 0.725 (95% confidence interval: 0.559-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Decision-making in biohazard incidents is a challenge for emergency team leaders. Knowledge of health care workers' physiological tolerance of PPE could improve their performance.